Quarter of 2024 Europe EVs Chinese: estimate

Almost a fifth (19.5%) of electric vehicles sold in Europe in 2023 were made in China and this is on track to reach a quarter (25%) in 2024, according to new analysis by NGO the European Federation for Transport and Environment (T&E).

The forecast comes as the EU is considering a range of environmental tariffs on Chinese imports, including on China’s EV industry.

Chinese imports into Europe have largely been Tesla, Dacia and BMW cars manufactured in China. T&E’s total market projection is for Chinese brands to reach 11% of the European EV market in 2024 and 20% in 2027.

The conservative projection assumes a linear growth in Chinese OEM market share based on the last two years, though BYD alone is targeting 5% of the European electric car market by 2025. Meanwhile, Chinese EV maker BYD launched EV sales in Greece in March 2024.

Raising the EU tariff on all vehicle imports from China to 25% would, according to T&E, make medium-sized sedans and SUVs more expensive than their European equivalents. Compact SUVs and larger cars imported from China are expected to remain slightly cheaper with such a tariff.

Tariffs will force Chinese carmakers to localise EV production in Europe. But tariffs won’t shield legacy carmakers for long. Chinese companies will build factories in Europe.

SourceEuropean Federation for Transport and Environment, March 27, 2024.